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招商银行2015年一季报暨2014年年报点评:开源节流挽颓势,资产质量仍承压
招商银行 600036
研究机构:国泰君安证券 分析师:邱冠华 撰写日期:2015-05-05
投资要点:
投资建议:上调目标价至28.22元,上调评级至增持
经济下行与降息背景下,预计2015/2016净利润增速4%/12%(分别下调10/1pc),对应EPS2.31/2.58元,BVPS14.11/15.99元,现价7.89/7.07倍PE,1.29/1.14倍PB。招行有望凭借零售业务优势掘金互联网金融时代,上调目标价至28.22元(对应2015年2.00倍PB),现价空间55%,从谨慎增持上调为增持评级。
业绩概述:2014业绩低于预期,2015Q1迎头赶上
2014年和2015Q1拨备前利润同比分别增长34%和30%,归属母行净利润同比分别增长8%和15%,2014业绩低于预期但2015Q1业绩超预期,主要归因于15年招行的开源节流举措。
新的认识:经营管理开源节流,资产质量持续承压
1、经营管理开源节流。招行2014业绩增长不及预期主要源自主动放缓资产扩张步伐,降低风险敞口,生息资产/付息负债余额与第三季度基本持平。2015Q1资产扩张重启,生息资产余额环比增长3.6%,且同业与债券投资收益率提升拉动净息差环比扩大26bp至2.80%。此外,招行提高经营效率,2015Q1成本收入比环比大降13.9pc至24.2%。资产扩张与管理优化是2015Q1业绩超预期主因。
2、资产质量持续恶化。2014全年加回核销后的真实不良生成率较上半年年化生成率上升12bp至1.12%。领先指标关注类贷款余额较上半年末增加55%(是行业增速的近两倍)。2015Q1末不良率继续环比上升13bp至1.24%,资产质量持续恶化。
风险提示:经济失速致资产质量加速恶化
基金持仓:
基金名称 | 持股数(万股) | 持股比例 | 持仓变化(万股) | 持股市值(万元) | 占净值比例 | 占个股流通市值比例 |
22.75 | 9.81 | -137.77 | 354.20 | 0.02 | 0.00 | |
0.61 | 13.22 | -2.29 | 9.51 | 1.07 | 0.00 | |
1500.00 | 6.74 | 399.41 | 23354.93 | 3.68 | 0.07 | |
120.95 | 8.88 | 11.59 | 1883.15 | 2.32 | 0.01 | |
80.00 | 8.59 | -12.39 | 1245.60 | 5.01 | 0.00 | |
320.60 | 11.80 | -30.36 | 4991.74 | 2.49 | 0.02 | |
6.65 | 11.45 | 1.19 | 103.48 | 1.99 | 0.00 | |
17.18 | 9.66 | -35.93 | 267.49 | 2.28 | 0.00 | |
4.74 | 12.86 | 4.74 | 73.76 | 33.59 | 0.00 | |
392.29 | 10.45 | 392.29 | 6107.91 | 7.75 | 0.02 | |
57.07 | 10.83 | 57.07 | 888.58 | 5.02 | 0.00 | |
36.63 | 8.92 | 36.63 | 570.27 | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
216.67 | 16.43 | 216.67 | 3373.55 | 14.08 | 0.01 | |
72.98 | 12.14 | 72.98 | 1136.30 | 2.60 | 0.00 | |
761.99 | 6.83 | 761.99 | 11864.22 | 1.22 | 0.04 | |
432.32 | 6.90 | 432.32 | 6731.22 | 1.27 | 0.02 | |
745.93 | 11.85 | -147.53 | 11614.19 | 2.46 | 0.04 | |
3.21 | 7.50 | 3.21 | 49.96 | 0.03 | 0.00 | |
57.60 | 15.12 | -12.60 | 896.83 | 6.84 | 0.00 | |
1397.11 | 6.93 | -387.89 | 21753.00 | 2.11 | 0.07 | |
15.40 | 13.17 | -34.60 | 239.78 | 2.79 | 0.00 | |
56.01 | 7.05 | 1.56 | 872.13 | 1.53 | 0.00 | |
716.05 | 10.73 | -370.11 | 11148.96 | 3.45 | 0.03 | |
57.56 | 11.19 | 38.95 | 896.22 | 7.78 | 0.00 | |
6901.66 | 9.66 | -1250.00 | 107458.82 | 5.97 | 0.33 | |
38.41 | 12.79 | -26.32 | 598.02 | 2.45 | 0.00 | |
474.20 | 11.60 | -428.00 | 7383.25 | 3.80 | 0.02 | |
107.78 | 12.39 | -55.55 | 1678.19 | 2.36 | 0.01 | |
9.56 | 12.08 | -6.41 | 148.91 | 2.45 | 0.00 | |
114.40 | 9.49 | -25.68 | 1781.27 | 1.82 | 0.01 | |
14.50 | 11.41 | -2.83 | 225.79 | 2.35 | 0.00 | |
83.62 | 12.30 | 30.38 | 1301.90 | 4.42 | 0.00 | |
27.13 | 12.11 | 14.91 | 422.39 | 2.34 | 0.00 | |
5004.69 | 12.37 | 1547.86 | 77923.03 | 6.79 | 0.24 | |
89.60 | 11.85 | -4.68 | 1395.05 | 2.54 | 0.00 | |
6997.22 | 7.71 | -1995.37 | 108946.76 | 2.63 | 0.34 | |
37.20 | 12.08 | -97.64 | 579.14 | 4.18 | 0.00 | |
343.05 | 12.11 | -123.04 | 5341.35 | 2.64 | 0.02 | |
12.51 | 12.15 | -4.43 | 194.78 | 2.62 | 0.00 | |
81.61 | 12.19 | -34.77 | 1270.61 | 5.85 | 0.00 | |
991.75 | 12.29 | -24.60 | 15441.60 | 6.49 | 0.05 | |
2007.71 | 8.65 | -177.28 | 31260.07 | 3.65 | 0.10 | |
3850.00 | 8.45 | 0.00 | 59944.50 | 4.81 | 0.19 | |
1450.09 | 4.48 | -50.00 | 22577.96 | 3.19 | 0.07 | |
56.87 | 7.34 | -64.71 | 885.52 | 1.61 | 0.00 | |
161.83 | 11.78 | -127.72 | 2519.67 | 0.08 | 0.01 | |
947.59 | 11.40 | 274.16 | 14754.02 | 5.26 | 0.05 | |
3804.16 | 10.76 | -100.00 | 59230.73 | 8.45 | 0.18 | |
101.98 | 12.23 | 60.66 | 1587.88 | 0.62 | 0.00 | |
314.52 | 5.45 | -202.29 | 4897.05 | 2.11 | 0.02 | |
33.10 | 9.16 | -19.50 | 515.42 | 3.42 | 0.00 | |
99.99 | 11.07 | -50.58 | 1556.88 | 3.82 | 0.00 | |
81.98 | 19.29 | -3.74 | 1276.36 | 6.55 | 0.00 | |
294.33 | 10.29 | -148.79 | 4582.77 | 3.26 | 0.01 | |
192.66 | 10.79 | -166.52 | 2999.75 | 3.49 | 0.01 | |
274.99 | 12.30 | -242.58 | 4281.54 | 2.65 | 0.01 | |
24.89 | 10.51 | -32.22 | 387.46 | 2.43 | 0.00 | |
3.90 | 11.26 | -1.17 | 60.76 | 2.56 | 0.00 | |
1300.99 | 5.46 | 0.00 | 20256.35 | 3.28 | 0.06 | |
4193.04 | 13.36 | -1429.16 | 65285.63 | 7.01 | 0.20 | |
10.81 | 11.37 | 7.33 | 168.26 | 0.11 | 0.00 | |
75.00 | 9.73 | -18.50 | 1167.75 | 3.40 | 0.00 | |
269.96 | 8.01 | 168.46 | 4203.24 | 1.63 | 0.01 | |
1037.94 | 4.16 | 380.00 | 16160.66 | 2.00 | 0.05 | |
198.73 | 11.78 | 47.11 | 3094.23 | 3.96 | 0.01 | |
4.21 | 12.87 | 0.12 | 65.60 | 0.13 | 0.00 | |
0.83 | 14.66 | 0.00 | 12.92 | 0.05 | 0.00 | |
249.32 | 6.89 | 249.32 | 3881.87 | 4.13 | 0.01 | |
484.20 | 13.69 | -89.50 | 7539.03 | 3.12 | 0.02 | |
140.97 | 13.71 | -87.61 | 2194.96 | 4.64 | 0.01 | |
92.49 | 11.66 | -73.12 | 1440.10 | 3.77 | 0.00 | |
97.72 | 9.79 | -17.54 | 1521.48 | 5.78 | 0.00 | |
17.38 | 5.46 | 17.38 | 270.61 | 0.14 | 0.00 | |
29.10 | 11.93 | -11.84 | 453.12 | 3.94 | 0.00 | |
78.48 | 12.27 | -71.00 | 1222.00 | 2.70 | 0.00 | |
386.01 | 8.27 | -312.49 | 6010.15 | 2.11 | 0.02 | |
572.86 | 12.04 | -119.68 | 8919.48 | 2.54 | 0.03 | |
564.67 | 12.39 | -163.93 | 8791.88 | 5.04 | 0.03 | |
285.13 | 13.21 | -367.93 | 4439.47 | 6.95 | 0.01 | |
11203.47 | 9.24 | 189.62 | 174438.05 | 6.11 | 0.54 | |
378.68 | 18.79 | -136.91 | 5895.99 | 9.22 | 0.02 | |
121.15 | 14.27 | -34.84 | 1886.25 | 7.80 | 0.01 | |
86.36 | 12.16 | -37.13 | 1344.63 | 6.79 | 0.00 | |
3406.78 | 12.29 | -589.50 | 53043.50 | 3.72 | 0.17 | |
17.64 | 4.86 | -5.39 | 274.69 | 1.24 | 0.00 | |
1590.86 | 12.10 | 183.97 | 24769.63 | 8.10 | 0.08 | |
19.49 | 16.31 | -6.55 | 303.38 | 5.47 | 0.00 | |
202.06 | 14.66 | -17.84 | 3146.07 | 8.32 | 0.01 | |
4911.71 | 10.53 | -1743.77 | 76475.27 | 2.63 | 0.24 | |
864.49 | 12.15 | -529.90 | 13460.15 | 2.60 | 0.04 | |
4456.19 | 11.13 | -1264.87 | 69382.90 | 2.63 | 0.22 | |
286.75 | 12.45 | -2.68 | 4464.67 | 7.89 | 0.01 | |
5.03 | 11.53 | -2.69 | 78.32 | 4.16 | 0.00 | |
19.81 | 12.22 | -14.80 | 308.44 | 5.73 | 0.00 | |
287.05 | 15.70 | -55.29 | 4469.39 | 5.38 | 0.01 | |
29.68 | 14.34 | -20.51 | 462.15 | 2.91 | 0.00 | |
68.00 | 7.85 | 68.00 | 1058.76 | 1.04 | 0.00 | |
881.17 | 11.91 | -120.30 | 13719.89 | 3.56 | 0.04 | |
1005.10 | 14.86 | -278.38 | 15649.36 | 2.87 | 0.05 | |
159.45 | 13.97 | -61.32 | 2482.67 | 3.55 | 0.01 | |
15.15 | 12.19 | 11.50 | 235.91 | 0.13 | 0.00 | |
346.50 | 15.48 | 0.00 | 5395.01 | 6.25 | 0.02 | |
540.00 | 16.70 | 0.00 | 8407.80 | 6.76 | 0.03 | |
768.41 | 12.59 | 213.39 | 11964.18 | 5.96 | 0.04 | |
11.60 | 7.04 | -1.59 | 180.57 | 2.97 | 0.00 | |
298.19 | 10.91 | -50.24 | 4642.77 | 2.49 | 0.01 |