维持“增持”评级。肉禽行业供给大幅收缩,看好16/17年景气反转,公司有望迎来量价齐升。考虑鸡价趋势,预计2016-18年公司EPS分别为0.88(不变)/1.71(+0.02)/1.84(不变)元。考虑行业平均估值,给予公司2017年23倍PE,上调目标价至40元,“增持”评级。
受益行业景气复苏,上半年实现大幅扭亏。上半年,公司实现营收39.24亿(+23.1%),收入增长主要源于鸡肉销量增长;归母净利润2.46亿(上年同期-3.53亿),扣非后1.86亿(非经常性损益主要为政府补贴),业绩大幅扭亏主要源于鸡肉价格回暖以及原材料价格同比下降。16Q2单季度,公司实现营收20.86亿,归母净利润1.79亿,环比增长169%。1-3季度业绩区间为5.45~6亿,上年同期为-3.49亿。估算上半年单羽盈利近1元,静待禽价趋势性上涨。上半年,公司肉鸡出栏约2亿羽,估算单羽盈利近1元(不含政府补贴)。大规模祖代引种尚未恢复,我们预计2016年3季度起父母代存栏有望加速下行,肉禽价格或迎来趋势性上涨,公司将充分受益。
大规模资本支出基本完成,公司有望享受“剩宴”。公司浦城第一阶段6000万羽肉鸡及欧圣实业第一阶段3000万羽肉鸡项目已全面投产,浦城第二阶段6000万羽肉鸡项目将逐步投产。公司6月已顺利引种1.8万套,预计2016-17年出栏量分别为4.3/5亿羽。
风险提示:鸡价波动风险、疫病、转型进展不达预期、食品安全等。233.35 | 4.76 | -50.31 | 6043.88 | 4.19 | 0.26 | |
83.87 | 5.90 | -24.83 | 2172.34 | 719.79 | 0.09 | |
37.00 | 10.45 | 9.00 | 958.30 | 9.29 | 0.04 | |
45.59 | 8.31 | -18.53 | 1180.68 | 0.94 | 0.05 | |
60.00 | 6.34 | 60.00 | 1554.00 | 3.08 | 0.07 | |
45.36 | 6.79 | 45.36 | 1174.89 | 5.78 | 0.05 | |
531.99 | 10.46 | 278.26 | 13778.54 | 5.20 | 0.59 | |
213.99 | 4.72 | 213.99 | 5542.41 | 3.81 | 0.24 | |
1.00 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 25.90 | 62.62 | 0.00 | |
138.70 | 14.92 | 0.00 | 3592.33 | 3.16 | 0.15 | |
37.77 | 8.00 | 37.77 | 978.24 | 3.60 | 0.04 | |
15.73 | 10.39 | 15.73 | 407.48 | 0.49 | 0.02 | |
79.99 | 13.19 | 79.99 | 2071.79 | 1.24 | 0.09 | |
139.80 | 4.10 | 65.92 | 3620.82 | 3.57 | 0.16 | |
21.90 | 9.47 | 21.90 | 567.21 | 0.25 | 0.02 | |
460.00 | 6.56 | -140.00 | 11914.00 | 1248.74 | 0.51 | |
38.14 | 4.38 | 0.00 | 987.72 | 0.24 | 0.04 | |
150.01 | 13.16 | 150.01 | 3885.18 | 4.43 | 0.17 | |
57.95 | 8.20 | -7.88 | 1500.83 | 3.47 | 0.06 | |
313.91 | 11.32 | 47.42 | 8130.19 | 6.67 | 0.35 | |
23.37 | 3.72 | 23.37 | 605.28 | 2.99 | 0.03 | |
10.38 | 8.05 | 10.38 | 268.90 | 2.80 | 0.01 | |
331.66 | 5.39 | 0.00 | 8589.96 | 5715.06 | 0.37 | |
660.00 | 8.60 | -40.00 | 17094.00 | 63.26 | 0.73 | |
66.10 | 4.76 | 0.00 | 1711.99 | 4.02 | 0.07 | |
22.60 | 2.87 | 22.60 | 585.39 | 1.90 | 0.03 | |
46.52 | 9.78 | -30.95 | 1204.75 | 5.08 | 0.05 | |
20.12 | 9.46 | -19.26 | 521.22 | 6.21 | 0.02 | |
2.01 | 1.71 | 0.07 | 52.06 | 1.99 | 0.00 | |
91.00 | 6.65 | -14.32 | 2356.90 | 1.30 | 0.10 | |
124.03 | 5.10 | 55.96 | 3212.47 | 6.12 | 0.14 | |
257.46 | 6.81 | 93.63 | 6668.32 | 5.39 | 0.29 | |
33.53 | 18.83 | 33.53 | 868.46 | 32.42 | 0.04 | |
14.18 | 7.06 | 2.21 | 367.26 | 11.74 | 0.02 | |
13.07 | 2.87 | -1.52 | 338.50 | 2.38 | 0.01 | |
289.23 | 11.07 | 26.35 | 7490.96 | 9.15 | 0.32 | |
25.00 | 4.91 | 0.00 | 647.50 | 2.88 | 0.03 | |
200.66 | 4.12 | 80.66 | 5196.98 | 3.35 | 0.22 | |
177.00 | 3.39 | 177.00 | 4584.24 | 2.71 | 0.20 | |
284.33 | 7.41 | 0.00 | 7364.18 | 6.70 | 0.32 | |
191.09 | 2.25 | 191.09 | 4949.24 | 1.67 | 0.21 | |
4.00 | 9.46 | 4.00 | 103.60 | 12.87 | 0.00 | |
33.01 | 3.85 | 6.01 | 854.96 | 3.26 | 0.04 | |
20.00 | 4.67 | 20.00 | 517.96 | 1.94 | 0.02 | |
1.91 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 49.47 | 0.09 | 0.00 | |
12.19 | 4.07 | 0.00 | 315.78 | 2.97 | 0.01 | |
12.00 | 3.36 | 0.00 | 310.80 | 2.91 | 0.01 | |
12.00 | 33.38 | 12.00 | 310.80 | 0.25 | 0.01 | |
500.00 | 8.17 | -133.21 | 12950.00 | 2.73 | 0.56 | |
192.67 | 3.53 | 0.00 | 4990.06 | 3.00 | 0.21 | |
454.55 | 5.32 | 4.36 | 11772.74 | 4.95 | 0.50 | |
436.14 | 4.65 | 436.14 | 11296.14 | 3.43 | 0.48 | |
164.95 | 5.63 | 57.39 | 4272.21 | 4.33 | 0.18 | |
202.66 | 6.09 | 38.01 | 5248.96 | 1.18 | 0.23 | |
6.00 | 12.54 | 3.00 | 155.40 | 2.11 | 0.01 | |
34.42 | 6.44 | 34.42 | 891.48 | 5.79 | 0.04 | |
76.99 | 4.82 | 76.99 | 1994.02 | 2.80 | 0.09 | |
9.92 | 4.52 | 9.92 | 256.93 | 3.35 | 0.01 | |
1.08 | 6.76 | -0.36 | 28.04 | 1.31 | 0.00 | |
1.89 | 1.69 | 1.89 | 48.95 | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
16.00 | 6.25 | 16.00 | 414.40 | 1.08 | 0.02 | |
1.00 | 5.45 | 1.00 | 25.90 | 0.66 | 0.00 | |
11.75 | 4.78 | 11.75 | 304.33 | 4.35 | 0.01 | |
197.99 | 6.70 | 197.99 | 5127.94 | 3.11 | 0.22 | |
59.74 | 13.25 | 59.74 | 1547.28 | 1.79 | 0.07 | |
45.81 | 5.76 | 4.46 | 1186.44 | 5.24 | 0.05 | |
1412.10 | 7.87 | 0.00 | 36573.27 | 7.07 | 1.57 | |
0.42 | 4.07 | 0.42 | 10.88 | 0.04 | 0.00 | |
46.93 | 3.12 | 46.93 | 1215.49 | 2.75 | 0.05 | |
189.99 | 5.38 | 189.99 | 4920.82 | 4.91 | 0.21 | |
350.27 | 4.05 | 60.00 | 9071.88 | 3.12 | 0.39 | |
15.44 | 6.31 | 3.09 | 399.90 | 5.80 | 0.02 | |
4.00 | 4.65 | 4.00 | 103.60 | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
4.00 | 4.65 | 4.00 | 103.60 | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
4.00 | 4.43 | 4.00 | 103.60 | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
358.53 | 6.35 | -21.46 | 9285.90 | 5.66 | 0.40 | |
18.61 | 8.44 | 0.00 | 482.04 | 3.98 | 0.02 | |
3.24 | 8.71 | 0.00 | 83.92 | 3.82 | 0.00 | |
6.00 | 4.59 | 6.00 | 155.40 | 0.16 | 0.01 | |
56.99 | 13.89 | 56.99 | 1476.07 | 4.83 | 0.06 | |
13.07 | 2.87 | 13.07 | 338.50 | 2.68 | 0.01 | |
44.57 | 1.66 | 44.57 | 1154.47 | 1.00 | 0.05 | |
1.29 | 0.21 | 1.18 | 33.41 | 0.20 | 0.00 | |
10.00 | 0.42 | 10.00 | 259.00 | 0.21 | 0.01 | |
0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
19.86 | 2.92 | 19.86 | 514.37 | 1.87 | 0.02 | |
355.40 | 2.46 | 355.40 | 9204.76 | 2.18 | 0.39 | |
0.09 | 0.37 | 0.09 | 2.39 | 0.34 | 0.00 | |
1.03 | 0.61 | 1.03 | 26.68 | 0.52 | 0.00 | |
17.32 | 2.42 | -9.77 | 448.47 | 1.83 | 0.02 | |
182.06 | 2.21 | 182.06 | 4715.25 | 1.66 | 0.20 | |
4.17 | 0.19 | 4.17 | 108.00 | 0.19 | 0.00 | |
360.00 | 4.11 | -89.99 | 9324.00 | 2.79 | 0.40 | |
97.75 | 2.46 | 97.75 | 2531.75 | 1.72 | 0.11 | |
0.30 | 2.68 | 0.30 | 7.77 | 0.43 | 0.00 | |
150.00 | 2.93 | 150.00 | 3885.00 | 2.00 | 0.17 | |
60.00 | 5.47 | -35.00 | 1554.00 | 2.80 | 0.07 | |
0.28 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 7.13 | 0.24 | 0.00 | |
20.00 | 2.81 | 20.00 | 517.98 | 2.30 | 0.02 | |
3.48 | 0.31 | 3.48 | 90.13 | 0.27 | 0.00 | |
30.71 | 0.48 | 30.71 | 795.48 | 0.30 | 0.03 | |
60.79 | 11.68 | 8.70 | 1574.45 | 7.75 | 0.07 | |
201.63 | 5.51 | 30.11 | 5222.28 | 3.75 | 0.22 | |
60.00 | 9.99 | 60.00 | 1553.95 | 0.42 | 0.07 | |
4.00 | 8.50 | 4.00 | 103.60 | 4.57 | 0.00 | |
140.00 | 3.14 | 0.00 | 3626.03 | 2.30 | 0.16 | |
230.00 | 3.73 | 230.00 | 5957.00 | 1.86 | 0.26 | |
98.00 | 1.56 | -60.00 | 2538.20 | 1.15 | 0.11 | |
10.70 | 0.49 | 10.70 | 277.13 | 0.32 | 0.01 | |
12.24 | 1.33 | 12.24 | 317.02 | 0.97 | 0.01 | |
1.00 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 25.90 | 0.20 | 0.00 | |
5.15 | 0.47 | 5.15 | 133.42 | 0.43 | 0.01 | |
5.00 | 1.69 | 5.00 | 129.50 | 0.24 | 0.01 | |
0.57 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 14.76 | 0.29 | 0.00 | |
1.01 | 0.32 | 1.01 | 26.16 | 0.29 | 0.00 | |
20.00 | 2.91 | 20.00 | 518.00 | 18.03 | 0.02 | |
4.34 | 2.33 | -3.85 | 112.49 | 1.43 | 0.00 | |
4.23 | 1.28 | 4.23 | 109.56 | 0.96 | 0.00 | |
14.03 | 1.27 | 14.03 | 363.48 | 0.97 | 0.02 | |
3.47 | 1.67 | -0.53 | 89.79 | 0.66 | 0.00 | |
50.00 | 0.36 | 50.00 | 1294.96 | 0.30 | 0.06 | |
13.04 | 3.24 | 13.04 | 337.74 | 2.43 | 0.01 | |
42.00 | 4.41 | -27.33 | 1087.80 | 3.34 | 0.05 | |
16.60 | 0.29 | 16.60 | 429.94 | 0.24 | 0.02 | |
1.85 | 1.02 | 1.85 | 47.92 | 0.99 | 0.00 | |
4.05 | 1.88 | 4.05 | 104.90 | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
188.92 | 2.86 | -111.08 | 4893.10 | 2.50 | 0.21 | |
28.07 | 1.17 | 28.07 | 726.96 | 0.90 | 0.03 | |
7.00 | 0.88 | 7.00 | 181.30 | 0.07 | 0.01 | |
18.81 | 0.58 | 18.81 | 487.18 | 0.41 | 0.02 | |
0.87 | 0.17 | 0.87 | 22.53 | 0.11 | 0.00 | |
50.00 | 0.38 | 50.00 | 1295.00 | 0.24 | 0.06 | |
120.00 | 2.04 | -40.00 | 3108.00 | 0.87 | 0.13 | |
12.10 | 0.23 | -133.47 | 313.40 | 0.17 | 0.01 | |
184.62 | 4.62 | 184.62 | 4781.57 | 3.17 | 0.21 | |
17.00 | 1.61 | -37.94 | 440.20 | 1.06 | 0.02 | |
30.00 | 0.52 | 30.00 | 777.00 | 0.43 | 0.03 | |
92.17 | 0.92 | 92.17 | 2387.28 | 0.83 | 0.10 | |
7.85 | 0.24 | 7.85 | 203.31 | 0.17 | 0.01 | |
3.97 | 1.26 | 3.97 | 102.82 | 1.11 | 0.00 | |
0.19 | 0.78 | 0.19 | 4.92 | 0.66 | 0.00 | |
101.10 | 3.60 | -13.94 | 2618.50 | 3.21 | 0.11 | |
0.73 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 18.90 | 0.25 | 0.00 | |
0.02 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.53 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |
0.75 | 1.53 | 0.75 | 19.43 | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
22.73 | 1.37 | 22.73 | 588.71 | 0.26 | 0.03 | |
35.00 | 0.28 | 35.00 | 906.41 | 0.21 | 0.04 | |
0.06 | 0.47 | 0.06 | 1.55 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |
70.71 | 1.55 | 70.71 | 1831.51 | 1.53 | 0.08 | |
1.25 | 0.10 | 1.25 | 32.38 | 0.09 | 0.00 | |
2.60 | 1.55 | 2.60 | 67.34 | 0.05 | 0.00 | |
0.11 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |
2.95 | 0.45 | 2.95 | 76.41 | 0.45 | 0.00 | |
10.16 | 0.33 | 10.16 | 263.14 | 0.29 | 0.01 | |
22.46 | 0.65 | 22.46 | 581.61 | 0.53 | 0.02 | |
6.89 | 1.85 | 6.89 | 178.45 | 1.83 | 0.01 | |
279.98 | 1.47 | 279.98 | 7251.61 | 1.25 | 0.31 | |
189.99 | 3.16 | 189.99 | 4920.74 | 2.44 | 0.21 | |
20.21 | 0.33 | 20.21 | 523.36 | 0.31 | 0.02 | |
8.15 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 210.99 | 3.56 | 0.01 | |
10.98 | 0.33 | 10.98 | 284.31 | 0.29 | 0.01 | |
47.19 | 0.48 | 47.19 | 1222.18 | 0.38 | 0.05 | |
28.60 | 0.03 | 28.60 | 740.84 | 0.02 | 0.03 | |
36.95 | 2.69 | 2.57 | 956.92 | 2.53 | 0.04 | |
0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 1.04 | 0.24 | 0.00 | |
40.06 | 0.58 | 40.06 | 1037.58 | 0.48 | 0.04 | |
49.99 | 0.75 | 49.99 | 1294.84 | 0.60 | 0.06 | |
30.68 | 2.95 | 30.68 | 794.61 | 1.22 | 0.03 | |
14.02 | 0.58 | 14.02 | 363.13 | 0.50 | 0.02 | |
534.40 | 1.55 | 534.40 | 13841.04 | 1.19 | 0.59 | |
0.98 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 25.38 | 0.30 | 0.00 | |
157.91 | 0.21 | 157.91 | 4089.92 | 0.11 | 0.18 | |
100.00 | 3.21 | 100.00 | 2590.00 | 2.51 | 0.11 | |
0.68 | 0.12 | 0.68 | 17.51 | 0.09 | 0.00 | |
0.20 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 5.14 | 0.12 | 0.00 | |
14.87 | 14.73 | 14.87 | 385.00 | 0.63 | 0.02 | |
19.99 | 11.80 | 19.99 | 517.79 | 0.43 | 0.02 | |
136.13 | 2.96 | 136.13 | 3525.84 | 2.43 | 0.15 | |
1.07 | 0.10 | 1.07 | 27.74 | 0.09 | 0.00 | |
0.04 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
0.32 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 8.36 | 0.18 | 0.00 | |
1.64 | 0.19 | 1.64 | 42.48 | 0.15 | 0.00 | |
2.17 | 1.17 | 2.17 | 56.14 | 1.03 | 0.00 | |
2.00 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 51.80 | 0.05 | 0.00 | |
13.98 | 2.73 | 13.98 | 362.18 | 2.54 | 0.02 | |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
16.15 | 3.16 | 16.15 | 418.29 | 2.25 | 0.02 | |
31.16 | 1.10 | 31.16 | 807.03 | 0.87 | 0.03 | |
46.94 | 2.63 | 46.94 | 1215.75 | 2.09 | 0.05 | |
16.24 | 2.09 | 16.24 | 420.61 | 1.32 | 0.02 | |
7.15 | 3.47 | 7.15 | 185.19 | 2.03 | 0.01 | |
30.00 | 3.21 | 30.00 | 777.05 | 2.24 | 0.03 | |
0.29 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 7.54 | 0.13 | 0.00 | |
25.60 | 1.04 | 25.60 | 662.94 | 0.62 | 0.03 | |
3.46 | 1.13 | 3.46 | 89.52 | 0.82 | 0.00 | |
78.34 | 1.94 | 78.34 | 2029.01 | 1.49 | 0.09 | |
35.16 | 3.00 | 35.16 | 910.64 | 2.18 | 0.04 | |
126.14 | 2.80 | 126.14 | 3266.92 | 1.93 | 0.14 | |
1.47 | 1.30 | 1.47 | 38.07 | 1.03 | 0.00 | |
5.00 | 4.96 | 5.00 | 129.50 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |
2.00 | 2.18 | 2.00 | 51.80 | 0.07 | 0.00 | |
3.01 | 0.16 | 3.01 | 77.96 | 0.02 | 0.00 | |
17.21 | 2.33 | 17.21 | 445.74 | 11.33 | 0.02 | |
14.83 | 1.36 | 14.83 | 384.02 | 0.74 | 0.02 | |
2.54 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 65.79 | 2.11 | 0.00 | |
5.00 | 1.78 | 5.00 | 129.50 | 1.42 | 0.01 | |
2.54 | 2.36 | -1.50 | 65.79 | 2.11 | 0.00 | |
7.99 | 0.31 | 7.99 | 207.04 | 0.28 | 0.01 | |
0.21 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 5.54 | 0.12 | 0.00 | |
17.91 | 2.60 | -11.44 | 463.95 | 1.90 | 0.02 | |
2.01 | 0.33 | 2.01 | 52.06 | 0.30 | 0.00 | |
4.11 | 0.21 | 4.11 | 106.45 | 0.20 | 0.00 | |
0.03 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.78 | 0.14 | 0.00 |